By KATHERINE SHRADER
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - The Iraqi government is strained by rampant violence, deep sectarian differences among its political parties and stymied leadership, the nation’s top spy analysts concluded in a sobering assessment released Thursday.

With the country teetering between success and failure in the next year, Iraq’s neighbors will continue to try to expand their leverage in the fractured state in anticipation that the United States will soon leave, the new report found.

It predicted that the Iraqi government “will become more precarious over the next six to 12 months” because of criticism from various Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish factions. “To date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively,” it said.

There was a glimmer of backhanded hope for the Iraqi leadership in the often dark analysis: Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will continue to benefit from the belief among other Shiite leaders that “searching for a replacement could paralyze the government.”

The new National Intelligence Estimate was an update of another high-level assessment prepared six months ago by the top analysts scattered across all 16 U.S. spy agencies. The CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency were the key contributors to Thursday’s report, which found some security progress but elusive hopes for reconciliation among Iraq’s feuding groups.

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